Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figure is higher than the 3.89 per cent recorded in the first quarter and the 4.23 per cent recorded in the same period last year.
Growth was recorded in both the oil and non-oil sectors, with oil growing by 7.31 per cent and the non-oil sector by 4.31 per cent. The services sector, which remains the largest part of the economy, grew by 4.60 per cent.
On the surface, the numbers suggest that Nigeria’s economy is getting better.
Inflation has fallen significantly from the levels recorded during the worst period of the recent economic crisis. The naira has become more stable, government finances have improved and investors have shown greater interest in the Nigerian economy.
The IMF says reforms over the past three years have produced improved macroeconomic outcomes and made the economy more resilient. Nigeria’s economy also grew by 3.87 per cent in 2025, compared with 3.38 per cent in 2024.
But there is another side to the story.
For many Nigerians, the economy does not feel like it is recovering.
Nigeria can be compared to a house that has been undergoing major repairs. Some of the foundations have become stronger, but that does not necessarily mean the people living inside the house are already comfortable.
That is where Nigeria currently finds itself.
So, is Nigeria’s economy actually improving?
The answer is yes, but it is not as simple as a yes or no.
The economic data shows genuine improvement.
GDP growth has strengthened, inflation has slowed and the naira has become more stable. Government revenue has also improved, while the country’s debt position has become more manageable relative to the size of the economy.
The IMF has described the reforms as improving macroeconomic outcomes and building resilience. PwC has also pointed to improved macroeconomic stability, stronger external conditions and better prospects for sustainable growth.
But an improving economy does not automatically mean that every household is becoming better off.
That is the part of the recovery many Nigerians are still waiting to see.
Why does the improvement not feel obvious?
One reason is that the things Nigerians experience every day are not measured by GDP alone.
A person does not experience GDP growth when they go to the market.
They experience the price of rice.
They experience the cost of transport.
They experience their salary.
They experience the availability of jobs.
They experience the cost of electricity and cooking gas.
And on those measures, life remains difficult for many Nigerians.
The IMF estimates that poverty has reached 63 per cent using the national poverty line, while about 27 million Nigerians were estimated to have faced food insecurity in late 2025.
So it is possible for the economy to be growing while a large number of Nigerians are still struggling to afford basic necessities.
But if inflation is falling, why are food prices still high?
This is one of the easiest things to misunderstand about the Nigerian economy.
When inflation falls, it does not mean that prices are falling.
It means that prices are increasing more slowly than they were before.
For example, if the price of a product increased by 30 per cent one year and then increased by 15 per cent the following year, inflation has fallen.
But the price of the product has not fallen.
It has increased again.
This distinction matters because food is one of the most important expenses for Nigerian households, and food prices can be particularly volatile.
So a reduction in the inflation rate can be good news for the economy without immediately making the average Nigerian’s shopping basket cheaper.
The person buying food today is still paying the higher price that accumulated during the previous period of rapid inflation.
This is why Nigerians can hear that inflation is falling and still feel that food is becoming more expensive.
What about salaries?
This is another part of the problem.
If prices rise faster than people’s incomes, their purchasing power falls.
In other words, even if a worker still receives a salary every month, that salary may buy less than it did before.
The World Bank has warned that poverty remains high and that bringing inflation down faster is important for improving household welfare. Its outlook also points to the pressure that higher food and fuel prices can put on real incomes, particularly for poorer households.
This is why economic growth has to eventually translate into higher productivity, better-paying jobs and stronger real incomes.
Without that, the economy can grow without the improvement being felt widely enough.
Why isn’t more money entering Nigeria automatically creating more jobs?
Another important part of the recovery is the type of money entering the country.
More foreign capital and greater investor interest are positive signs.
But not every form of investment creates a factory, expands a business or employs more people.
Some foreign investors can put money into financial assets such as government bonds because they are attracted by returns and improving economic conditions.
That can help financial markets and government financing, but it does not automatically create the kind of businesses and jobs that directly improve household incomes.
For the recovery to become broader prosperity, more of the economic improvement has to translate into productive investment, business expansion and employment.
PwC has identified consumer affordability constraints, uneven sectoral growth and the need to turn macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth among the major issues facing Nigeria.
What could derail the recovery?
The improvement is also not guaranteed.
Higher global food and energy prices could put pressure on inflation again. The IMF has warned that higher global fuel, food and fertiliser prices could increase exports and government revenues for Nigeria while simultaneously creating inflationary pressure and worsening poverty and food insecurity.
The conflict and instability in the Middle East could therefore create another problem for Nigeria if it keeps pushing energy and food costs higher.
Tighter financial conditions could also make borrowing more difficult for businesses and consumers.
There is also the question of government spending.
Nigeria has to balance higher spending pressures, including wages and interest payments, with the need to invest in infrastructure and human development.
The government therefore has to be careful about how it uses any additional revenue it receives from higher oil prices or other temporary gains.
If the improvements in government finances are not sustained, some of the progress made so far could be weakened.
And there is a bigger problem beyond today’s prices
The consequences of the current situation are not limited to whether Nigerians can afford food today.
They also affect the people who will make up Nigeria’s future workforce.
High poverty, food insecurity and inadequate access to essential services can affect children’s health and development.
That means the question is not only whether today’s economy is growing.
It is whether the country is creating the human capital needed to sustain that growth in the future.
If children grow up without adequate nutrition, healthcare and education, the consequences can follow them into adulthood and eventually affect the productivity of the workforce.
So, is Nigeria recovering?
Yes.
But Nigeria is not yet at the point where economic recovery can simply be equated with improved living standards.
The country’s economic foundations appear to be getting stronger.
Growth is improving. Inflation is lower than it was at its peak. The naira is more stable. Government finances have improved and the financial system is becoming more resilient.
But the people living in that economy are still dealing with the effects of years of high inflation, weak purchasing power, poverty, food insecurity and inadequate job opportunities.
That is why both sides of the story can be true.
Nigeria’s economy can be improving while Nigerians are still struggling.
The next challenge is therefore different from the one Nigeria has faced over the past few years.
The country has spent much of that period trying to stabilise the economy.
Now, the bigger question is whether that stability can be turned into something Nigerians can actually feel — through lower and more stable prices, higher real incomes, productive investment, better jobs and stronger public services.
The economy may be getting stronger.
Now the people need to feel it.
